Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-nr4z6 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-06-06T20:52:38.867Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Nimrod: A system for generating automated very short range forecasts

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 March 1998

B W Golding
Affiliation:
Meteorological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SZ, UK
Get access

Abstract

A very short range forecasting system has been developed which integrates nowcasting techniques with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model products to provide forecasts over the UK and surrounding waters up to six hours ahead. There are three main components, producing analyses and forecasts of precipitation, cloud and visibility, respectively. The precipitation rate analysis uses processed radar and satellite data, together with surface reports and NWP fields. The forecast is based on an object advection technique, modified for growth and decay using model products. Related variables, such as precipitation type, are also diagnosed using the NWP fields. The cloud analysis is based largely on satellite imagery and surface reports, the forecast being carried out in a similar way to precipitation rate. The visibility analysis combines surface reports with NWP model fields and satellite imagery: Meteosat during the day and NOAA-AVHRR at night. The forecast is an extrapolation using trends from the NWP model, and relaxing towards the model values themselves. Results show a substantial improvement over both persistence and raw NWP model products.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
© 1998 Meteorological Society

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)